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EastUmpqua
03-18-2016, 06:04 PM
I've been playing cribbage since I was 6 years old, and I've never had or seen a 29 hand. I've had 28 point hands, but never with nobs. Has anyone actually had one?

yearofglad
03-18-2016, 06:18 PM
I've been playing since about that long, including 1,000+ games on my phone, and I've never gotten one nor seen one either.

(The probability of getting one is 1/216,580 (in 2-player, 2-handed), so the chances are pretty slim.)

I suppose I've played maybe 2,000 games in my life, maybe 12 hands per game per person, so that's 48,000 hands of cribbage, which isn't really close to 216,580 - maybe someone can tell me what the probability is that I would have seen one in 48,000 hands, given the initial probability.

OldGuy
03-18-2016, 06:56 PM
The chance of not seeing one in a given hand is 1/216,580 = 0.999995383. The chance of not seeing one in 48000 straight hands is 0.99999538348000 = 0.801. So the chance you wold have seen at least one is just under 20%.

Colibri
03-18-2016, 07:09 PM
Moved to the Game Room.

Colibri
General Questions Moderator

MadTheSwine
03-18-2016, 07:11 PM
I have had one and seen another.

racer72
03-18-2016, 09:13 PM
Two 28 hands in over 50 years of playing. Saw one 29 during a crib tournament about 20 years ago. My sweetest was dropping a 28 then a 12 crib on a cousin that was giving me all kinds of grief on how he was kicking my ass. I went from a certain skunk to winning leaving him in the stink hole.

Hoopy Frood
03-20-2016, 08:55 PM
I've never seen a 29 hand or a 28 hand. Granted, I haven't played cribbage nearly as much as my father (who taught me when I was 8 or so) had.

He had never seen a 29 hand either. Though he had seen a 28 hand in a game. (I can't recall if it was him or his opponent.)

He knew a guy in the army who claimed to have seen a 29 hand in a game played by that guy's opponent.

ETA: The highest I've ever managed is 24. But I've gotten 24 in every way possible to get it. (Ignoring suits, of course.)

Laggard
03-20-2016, 10:02 PM
40 years of playing and never seen one. My had has played almost seventy years and he has seen one. My highest is 24.

Chicken Fingers
03-21-2016, 06:18 PM
My dad has played almost seventy years too, including a lot of hours at sea, and he said he's never seen one either.

pulykamell
03-21-2016, 08:23 PM
Huh. I had no idea these were so rare. I want to say I've seen a 28 or possibly a 29, but, given the odds, I suspect it's pretty unlikely. It's not something that would have registered for me.

kayT
03-21-2016, 09:20 PM
I've had 28 at least twice and my dad had 29 once. I accused him of stacking the deck when I went for a cup of coffee but he swore he didn't.

SCAdian
03-21-2016, 09:45 PM
My dad has played almost seventy years too, including a lot of hours at sea, and he said he's never seen one either.
I've had one - and I was at sea at the time. :)

No picture, alas. My camera was in my bunk, half the length of the ship away. :mad:

Southern Yankee
03-21-2016, 09:45 PM
I've had 28 at least twice and my dad had 29 once. I accused him of stacking the deck when I went for a cup of coffee but he swore he didn't.

I did that to my uncle who taught me to play. I was probably 20 at the time (so almost 30 years ago.) He used to frequently tell us that his best friend made him promise that if he ever got a 29 to call him immediately, no matter where or when. He got up to use the bathroom and I staged the cards. I watched his face as he looked at his hand. When I cut the 5 I thought he was going to die. He jumped up before we even played a card and went to the phone. I had to stop him before he finished dialing. He was pretty steamed, but then saw the humor.

But I have never seen a real 29.

Bricker
03-21-2016, 10:47 PM
I had two 28 hands in the same month, during a period I was playing constantly, but never before or since. Never a 29.

harmonicamoon
03-21-2016, 11:24 PM
Played a zillion games. I love that game. Never seen a 29.

Fleetwood
03-22-2016, 07:19 AM
Saw one. My brother had one against me decades ago. Closest I have come is two twenty-eights.

RTFirefly
03-22-2016, 01:47 PM
Never had a 28 hand, let alone a 29. (Closest I've come to a 28 has been 3 fives and a face, awaiting the cut, i.e. a 1 in 46 chance at it. That's happened to me a few times.)

Laggard
03-22-2016, 03:43 PM
It is amazing that so many play consistently there who lives and never see one.

So, if one played 5 games a day for 50 years, what are the odds that one will see or have one?

Quercus
03-23-2016, 12:02 PM
It is amazing that so many play consistently there who lives and never see one.

So, if one played 5 games a day for 50 years, what are the odds that one will see or have one?
Well, that's about 23 times as many hands as the 48,000 that OldGuy calculated had a 80.1% chance of not seeing one.

So, if OldGuy calculated right, the chance of not seeing one in the 50ys x 5 games is 80.1% ^ 23. By my calc 0.006.

So, if you played all 50 years, you'd see at least one 99.4% of the time.

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