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View Full Version : What is North Korea's future under Kim Jong-Un?


crazybear
12-21-2011, 02:01 AM
After Kim Jong-Il's death, the whole world's attention has now shifted to his heir, Kim Jong-Un.
Accordingly, North Korean media is putting all effort into advertising Kim Jong-Un as the official heir to the Great Leader of North Korea.

However, it remains unclear whether Kim Jong-Un will have an absolute authority as his father did. Kim Jong-Il began from scratch, and took 16 years to become an heir. Kim Jong-Un on the other hand, took only 2 years to become the heir, therefore he has a weaker power base.

Kim Jong-Il also had a political battle with his uncle Kim Yong-Joo, to prove his political skills. Kim Jong-Un on the other hand, has had no opportunity to prove himself yet.

It is ironic to see North Korea giving the whole nation's fate unto the hands of a young, inexperience man in his 20s. Perhaps this will bring doom to North Korea's cruel legacy after all.

Quartz
12-21-2011, 08:19 AM
Just a nitpick: it's only 2 years since Jong-un became the designated heir. We have no idea what alliances he forged or what he did before that. But I would offer that he must have done something for Jong-Il to make him the designated heir.

Monty
12-21-2011, 09:21 AM
He did: he was born to that cretin. The key is that he didn't do what the other siblings did: embarrass or disappoint dear ol' daddy somehow. No matter what North Korea may call itself, it's still a monarchy and the Kim is the ruling dynasty.

{Thought about editing out the superfluous the in front of Kim. Decided against it. Maybe this'll be a new meme: "The Kim is dead. Long live the Kim!"}

Simplicio
12-21-2011, 09:32 AM
However, it remains unclear whether Kim Jong-Un will have an absolute authority as his father did. Kim Jong-Il began from scratch, and took 16 years to become an heir. Kim Jong-Un on the other hand, took only 2 years to become the heir, therefore he has a weaker power base.

I'd imagine dynastic succession gets easier after the first two generations, since once someones established the precedent, people have an expectation that it will continue (though of course, history has shown its hardly a sure thing even then).

But no one seems to have any real idea of NK's inner politics are, or even if the Kims are really in charge or just front men for the various Generals in charge of the military, so predictions seem to basically be 100% guesswork at this point.

BrainGlutton
12-21-2011, 10:21 AM
Jong-un was educated in Switzerland . . . Henceforth, NK's national dish will be fondue! :) (Meat fondue, that is, and specifically stew-dog; they're a bit short of dairy cows.)

Bryan Ekers
12-21-2011, 10:25 AM
I'll hazard a guess and say.... grim.

Damuri Ajashi
12-21-2011, 10:31 AM
You can't help but think that someone else might think that they have ab etter claim to Kim Il Sung's legacy. I hear that Kim Jong Uns uncle (Kim Jong Il's sister's husband and Kim Il Sung's son-in law) is particularly powerful and was the son Kim Il Sung always wanted. If Kim Jong Un proves to be weak or ineffective, his uncle has much stronger connections than his nephew.

Damuri Ajashi
12-21-2011, 10:37 AM
I'd imagine dynastic succession gets easier after the first two generations, since once someones established the precedent, people have an expectation that it will continue (though of course, history has shown its hardly a sure thing even then).

But no one seems to have any real idea of NK's inner politics are, or even if the Kims are really in charge or just front men for the various Generals in charge of the military, so predictions seem to basically be 100% guesswork at this point.

People have almost 20/20 hindsight into NK politics, they have no idea how things are playing out in real time. Do you know how many generals share the same last name as the president of NK?

So yeah predictions are guesswork but they are not blind guesses. They are educated guesses about a very unpredictable situation.

BrainGlutton
12-21-2011, 05:57 PM
According to Reuters, (http://stuff.co.nz/world/asia/6176069/North-Korean-heir-to-share-power-source) there's not going to be any more one-man dictatorship; Jong-un will have to share power with his uncle and the generals, he'll be nominal head of a collective leadership.

eman77
12-22-2011, 01:52 AM
Let me throw some psychology in so people can have an idea what this 20 something kid is going through right now.

After two years of following Daddy around the country and learning to make a serious face in public, he inherits the most isolated country in the world which houses 25 million impoverished and delusional people. This country happens to be enemies or social outcasts of every single country in the world except China, which isn't a very good friend either.

Also, the alpha male country of the world, the USA, is on his ass, just waiting for any opportunity to dismantle the current government. Meanwhile your biggest rival is right next to you, trying to watch your every move. The only thing stopping the rest of the world from invading your ass is the threat of nuclear weapons you may or may not have.

Nobody knows anything about him and is dying for any details. He is under some incredible pressure to not only be the GREAT SUCCESSOR to 25 million people, but manage to not give a damn about 6-7 billion other people who would not mind seeing him dead. Collective government or not, he is the figurehead.

This is not the first time a kid his age has inherited an entire country. I'm sure there is countless examples of this over the past 1000 years. I'm confident the answer to how this will all turn out is already in the history books, despite all the modern issues.

Damuri Ajashi
12-22-2011, 11:18 AM
I thought this thread got merged.

BrainGlutton
12-22-2011, 11:21 AM
This is not the first time a kid his age has inherited an entire country. I'm sure there is countless examples of this over the past 1000 years. I'm confident the answer to how this will all turn out is already in the history books, despite all the modern issues.

There is no consistent pattern. Sometimes the Boy King is murdered, like (possibly) Tutankhamen. Sometimes the Boy King grows up to be a great king, like Louis XIV, and sometimes the Boy King grows up to be a crappy, spoiled king, like Louis XV.

No Wikipedia Cites
12-22-2011, 11:40 AM
Do we pronounce our new master, "uhn" or "ooon"?

"Jahng-uhn" sounds like "Youngin'"

drewtwo99
12-22-2011, 06:27 PM
North Korea will slowly modernize, as it has been for the last decade or so. I expect it's going to be a lot like China within 50 years, with a much weaker economy of course. I mean, it'll be *somewhat* better than it is now, with a stronger economy and less overall suffering, but still a lot of state censorship, and not allowing citizens to travel, etc.

Quartz
12-22-2011, 06:45 PM
There is no consistent pattern. Sometimes the Boy King is murdered, like (possibly) Tutankhamen. Sometimes the Boy King grows up to be a great king, like Louis XIV, and sometimes the Boy King grows up to be a crappy, spoiled king, like Louis XV.

Let's hope he doesn't try to emulate that most famous exemplar, Alexander of Macedon.

Astroboy14
12-22-2011, 06:53 PM
Do we pronounce our new master, "uhn" or "ooon"?



It's closer to "ooon". I think.

Frank
12-22-2011, 07:09 PM
According to Reuters, (http://stuff.co.nz/world/asia/6176069/North-Korean-heir-to-share-power-source) there's not going to be any more one-man dictatorship; Jong-un will have to share power with his uncle and the generals, he'll be nominal head of a collective leadership.
Don't you ever have any thoughts of your own to share? Why do you always depend on a link to a news organization that may or may not be reputable?

Do you agree with Reuters?

BrainGlutton
12-22-2011, 08:38 PM
Don't you ever have any thoughts of your own to share?

Yes.

Kozmik
12-22-2011, 09:04 PM
This is not the first time a kid his age has inherited an entire country.Don't worry: He has some friends (http://telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/7810203/Rare-photos-of-Kim-Jong-ils-youngest-son-Kim-Jong-un-released.html). ;)

eman77
12-22-2011, 09:28 PM
Don't worry: He has some friends (http://telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/7810203/Rare-photos-of-Kim-Jong-ils-youngest-son-Kim-Jong-un-released.html). ;)

That's funny. Isn't there an identical picture of Hitler at that age where he is in the same exact position?

Kozmik
12-22-2011, 10:02 PM
That's funny. Isn't there an identical picture of Hitler at that age where he is in the same exact position?Yes and no. The class picture of Hilter did not have any 90s kids. The class picture of Kim Jong-un is filled with 90s kids. Kim Jong-un is a 90s kid.

BrainGlutton
12-22-2011, 11:07 PM
Yes and no. The class picture of Hilter did not have any 90s kids. The class picture of Kim Jong-un is filled with 90s kids. Kim Jong-un is a 90s kid.

Oh, I feel much better now!

Monty
12-23-2011, 02:15 AM
Do we pronounce our new master, "uhn" or "ooon"?

"Jahng-uhn" sounds like "Youngin'"

Here you go (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong_Un). Using South Korea's latest romanization system, the name 김정은 is transliterated as Kim Jeong Eun and is prounced Keem (ee as in feet) Jeong (eo is prounced as the u in strut) Eun (the eu is pronounced as the u in put).

Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor
12-23-2011, 08:03 AM
What is North Korea's future under Kim Jong-Un?

Hunger, rage and war.




.

BrainGlutton
12-23-2011, 01:49 PM
From the TVTropes Useful Notes page (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/UsefulNotes/NorthKorea) on NK:

The Real Life DPRK provides examples of

• A Nazi by Any Other Name: The ideology of North Korea is a perverse form of racist nationalism, where they view themselves as the purest race on earth. The DPRK regime has more in common with Nazi Germany than it does with any so-called-communist dictatorship. The racism in the country is at an almost mind-boggling level—a black Cuban diplomat was almost lynched when he tried to show his family the sights of Pyongyang. The few North Korean women who return pregnant from China—the regime's main ally and protector—are forced to have abortions. ◦ When a group of diplomats from the GDR traveled to the DPRK in the 1960s, they commented that the country resembled Nazi era Germany.

fifty-six
12-23-2011, 05:29 PM
Can he possibly do worse than his father? I suppose starting a war would count. But really this country is in a terrible mess.

I am gonna go out on a limb and suggest that this young 20something kid getting his schooling in a neutral, peaceful, progressive, rich country may have influenced him. It is quite possible that he has a Facebook page full of friends from college that will influence him to make some sort of changes. He is young and 20 and probably tends toward some wacky ideals and behaviors, it is in his genes. Anything can happen.

smiling bandit
12-27-2011, 02:18 PM
From the TVTropes Useful Notes page (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/UsefulNotes/NorthKorea) on NK:

Tvtropes is wrong. I'm not saying it's exactly incorrect, but it's far closer to Stalinist Russia than Hitler's Germany. Even at the height of control, Germany had things like bars and nightclubs, as well as a semi-functioning economy. North Korea is, again, more like Stalin's nightmares withn a generous ladle of racist hell on top of it. And while they've dropped all mention of Communism, the actual policies have hardly changed since the 1950's, except to become even more hardline.

Edit: And Tvtropes as a cite? Good Lord. Wikipedia is fine by me, but Tvtropes has the intellectual rigor of pork lard.

foolsguinea
12-28-2011, 12:44 AM
Do we pronounce our new master, "uhn" or "ooon"?

"Jahng-uhn" sounds like "Youngin'"Neither, as far as I can tell. Wikipedia says it's a close back unrounded vowel, so something like "u" in standard Japanese? In between "oon" and "in" sorta?

BrainGlutton
12-28-2011, 12:50 AM
Yes and no. The class picture of Hilter did not have any 90s kids. The class picture of Kim Jong-un is filled with 90s kids. Kim Jong-un is a 90s kid.

Come to think of it . . . If he were to introduce Ecstasy and Raves to NK . . .

Mahaloth
12-28-2011, 04:33 PM
Interesting article about what N. Koreans really are caring about. (http://askakorean.blogspot.com/2011/12/kim-jong-ils-death-more-articles-from.html)

I like the part about the "apples are trembling". Indeed, the top of the party is the most capitalistic, hypocritical, and greedy of them all.

Xema
12-28-2011, 06:42 PM
Indeed, the top of the party is the most capitalistic, hypocritical, and greedy of them all.
Capitalistic?

Various googling suggests that would mean supporting "private ownership of the means of production, creation of goods or services for profit or income, the accumulation of capital, competitive markets, voluntary exchange, and wage labor". Is this what prevails at the top of the party in NK?

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