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#251
Old 03-17-2018, 03:33 AM
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Democrats are their own worst enemies?

According to Bill Maher, Lamb won by denouncing Nancy Pelosi. Did he also denounce Trump?
#252
Old 03-17-2018, 10:23 AM
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A relevant Atlantic article about Pelosi being attacked by Reps and, as a result, being less supported by Dems, including Lamb.
#253
Old 03-17-2018, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by septimus View Post
According to Bill Maher, Lamb won by denouncing Nancy Pelosi. Did he also denounce Trump?
I wouldn't go to Bill Maher for political analysis.

He attacked the current Congress more than anything else (never a bad bet for someone running for a first term), Paul Ryan as Speaker and the GOP leader most of all, but certainly stated that he had no love for the current Democratic leadership (Pelosi) either. Trump was simply not the focus. Good choice as his true supporters staying on their collective asses as much as possible compared to Democratic support being enthused has been the key in these special election upsets. If the last Monmouth poll was predictive at all he got some votes from those who approved of Trump. Not many maybe but in that specific gerrymandered district they mattered.

Running as a change agent and as someone who is independent, willing to buck party, is a tried and true formula. No eek justified. He stated what I believe he feels is his honest truth: his mission in Congress will be to represent the interests of his district as he sees them and he does not see a House Speaker Pelosi as being the best choice to serve that goal. Other Democrats running in similar sorts of districts will likely also run similar sorts of campaigns and state that they believe the party needs new leadership almost (but not) as much as Congress needs different (non-GOP) leadership. A Democrat who runs in those districts who believes and states that Pelosi is great and that they will follow her will not win.

Of course some different districts will have Democrats running who also think Pelosi should go, but want her replaced with someone more progressive.

Assuming that House control does flip she may or may not be the new House leader. But while she likely will not be a majority's first choice she may be one they can all live with.

FWIW I agree that she has in fact been quite effective in the leadership position. Not many can herd cats as well as she has. But that doe not mean that the cats all dig her.
#254
Old 03-17-2018, 02:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
I wouldn't go to Bill Maher for political analysis.
That was not “analysis”, it was reportage. As accurate as could (it is hard to imagine how Maher could have creatively edited the material to distort the reality).
#255
Old 03-17-2018, 03:25 PM
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That was not "reportage", it was an editorial, reacting to the fact that a Democratic candidate who has no love for Pelosi, who has no plan to support her as leader, who believes that she does not reflect what is in what he thinks is in the best interests of his district, made such clear.

Yes, Lamb distanced himself from Pelosi.

Pelosi is not loved by Blue Dogs. She is not loved by progressives. They are pretty united in disliking her I think because she's made the tough decisions that have not been popular with any group of the party. Maher's opinion that a Democrat in district with a 20 point GOP lean in which Pelosi is fairly reviled who has no love of Pelosi making it clear that such is the case is being "a pussy" is dumb.

Edited to make clear. I think Pelosi is a great leader and that the Democratic party does not require thinking so of its candidates or those who vote for its candidates.

Last edited by DSeid; 03-17-2018 at 03:30 PM.
#256
Old 03-17-2018, 03:31 PM
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I did not watch the entire Bill Maher rant. I have mostly not been in the mood for him lately. The central point – that Conor Lamb expressed dislike for her – was nonetheless reported at the beginning of the New Rule. In that sense, it was a valid source.
#257
Old 03-17-2018, 04:14 PM
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Yes that jumping off point is a factual statement that is hardly breaking news or worthy. Heck, it goes back to January.

Quote:
Conor Lamb, the Democrat running to replace Tim Murphy in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, said that if elected, he would like to see House Democrats replace Nancy Pelosi as their leader.

“I think it’s clear that this Congress is not working for people,” said Mr. Lamb on Monday morning, as some initial polling data was circulating and national interest in the race continues to swirl. “I think we need new leadership on both sides.” ...

... “The real issue here is not Nancy Pelosi: It’s [current speaker of the House] Paul Ryan. He’s the one who has declared that he’s coming after Medicaid and Social Security.”

Mr. Ryan signaled that agenda during a talk-radio appearance in early December: As Republicans were pushing through a controversial tax-cut plan, Mr. Ryan called “health care entitlements” the “big drivers of our debt.”

Mr. Lamb alleged that such proposals represented ‘the same kind of trickle-down [policies] that my opponent has always supported.” ...
Blue Dogs don't like Pelosi, they are running in districts in which she is viewed very unfavorably (although Ryan possibly even more poorly), they don't like being characterized as being handpicked by her or as her puppets, and they will not be in favor of her being the Speaker if the Ds get control.* Maher objects to that. Boo fuckin hoo.


*I suspect many will still end up voting for her as a compromise, least poor choice, but if there are enough of them they will mount a challenge first, as possibly may the hard progressive side.
#258
Old 03-17-2018, 07:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Pelosi...is not loved by progressives.
I'd disagree. There are certainly progressives that don't like her, but AFAICT many more are big fans of Nancy Smash! as she's known in some corners of the lefty blogosphere.
#259
Old 03-17-2018, 09:00 PM
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OK, so worst case scenario (if it's even a bad scenario at all), he ends up voting for some other Democrat as Speaker. But whoever it is, he's going to vote for a Democrat.
#260
Old 03-18-2018, 12:01 AM
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Did he say he just wouldn't vote for Pelosi for leader, or that he also wouldn't vote for her in the House vote for the new Speaker? The former would be mostly symbolic unless there were a lot of others voting against her. The latter could induce deadlock if Democrats win a slim majority.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 03-18-2018 at 12:03 AM.
#261
Old 03-18-2018, 07:17 AM
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He said: “I think we need new leadership on both sides.” His position is that he appreciates her skills as both a fundraiser and as a field marshal, but: “I don’t think that changes the fact that people are ready for a new day.”

Which in Maher's book makes him "a pussy."
#262
Old 03-18-2018, 03:03 PM
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Relevant article in today's NYT.
Quote:
... Mr. Lamb, by coming out early against Ms. Pelosi and scoring an upset win in a district President Trump carried by nearly 20 percentage points, has clearly emboldened some other Democrats to follow suit and disavow her. Republicans intend to make Ms. Pelosi’s unpopularity a centerpiece of their 2018 strategy, hoping that her polarizing status will mitigate their predicted losses.

Anticipating this strategy from the right, Democratic candidates are increasingly opposing her as speaker or refusing to take a stand an act of political inoculation — a trend that even her allies acknowledge could ultimately imperil her grip on the Democratic caucus.

At least two other senior Democrats, Representatives Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland and Joseph Crowley of New York, are already actively laying the groundwork to seek the leader’s job if Ms. Pelosi’s position becomes untenable. ...

... Most ominous for Ms. Pelosi, it is not just centrist candidates running in red-tinged districts who are reluctant to embrace her, but also political insurgents on the left who see her as an embodiment of the Washington establishment.

“I would have to see who’s running,” said Marie Newman, a progressive Democratic House candidate in Illinois, when asked if she would support Ms. Pelosi for speaker. Ms. Newman is vying to unseat Representative Daniel Lipinski, a conservative Chicago Democrat, in a primary there on Tuesday. ...

... there is unease with Ms. Pelosi in solid-blue districts, too. In two Boston-area districts, neither the Democratic incumbents nor their more progressive rivals have committed to backing Ms. Pelosi. Brianna Wu, a liberal activist opposing Representative Stephen F. Lynch in a Democratic primary, said she was worried Democrats would suffer from Ms. Pelosi’s “inability to express a vision for the party.”

Representative Kurt Schrader of Oregon, a moderate Democrat, said he had encouraged other congressional hopefuls to oppose Ms. Pelosi if necessary.

“I have liberals back home, the one thing they really like about me is the fact that I voted against Nancy,” he said. “No matter what candidate you are, it’s not necessarily a bad message.”
#263
Old 03-19-2018, 05:11 AM
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If Pelosi were smart - and she appears to be - she'd be perfectly happy to let new candidates play the "I hate Pelosi" card if it helps them get elected. They can hate her all the way into the Speaker's chair.
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#264
Old 03-19-2018, 07:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gyrate View Post
If Pelosi were smart - and she appears to be - she'd be perfectly happy to let new candidates play the "I hate Pelosi" card if it helps them get elected. They can hate her all the way into the Speaker's chair.
Exactly!

Democrats can't afford to splinter over anything when it comes to elections.
#265
Old 03-19-2018, 08:36 AM
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Damn straight. We should allow that to be the province of the Tea Party guys.
#266
Old 03-19-2018, 09:10 AM
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I've started a thread here to discuss whether Pelosi should be replaced, and if so, by whom.
#267
Old 03-21-2018, 08:40 PM
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And the final answer to this thread is yes as Rick Saccone decided to concede defeat today rather than pursue some sort of challenge to the result.

As a very unusual postscript, due to the fact that Pennsylvania will be using different districts in November and both Saccone and Conor Lamb have filed to run but not in the same race, it's entirely plausible that both men could end up sitting in Congress next January anyway.
#268
Old 03-22-2018, 07:11 AM
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I wonder why the GOP is rolling over and playing dead so quickly on this one? That's not their usual MO. Do you suppose they judge the protracted publicity that a challenge would bring would only serve to remind the American public the party lost yet another seat in a special election that took place in ruby red district, while providing the very marginal benefit of putting one of their boys in a district that likely won't exist in a few months?
#269
Old 03-22-2018, 07:19 AM
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Rick Saccone is not the right hill to die on in Pennsylvania. He was a bad, unpopular candidate, and this race is small potatoes in the long run. Plus, there really is zero way that they flip the results of this election. A recount wouldn't do it, so they'd have to somehow prove widespread Democrat voter fraud. Widespread Democrat voter fraud is something that the GOP is good at talking about but bad at proving.

The PA GOP has chosen a different and even more ridiculous hill to die on instead.

Last edited by Johnny Bravo; 03-22-2018 at 07:21 AM.
#270
Old 03-22-2018, 10:05 AM
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It's definitely the smart move to not fight too hard against this result, both because the stakes are so low, and because the cost is so high.

In other words, I'm not sure why the Republicans aren't doing it, either.
#271
Old 03-23-2018, 08:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Bravo View Post
Rick Saccone is not the right hill to die on in Pennsylvania. He was a bad, unpopular candidate, and this race is small potatoes in the long run. Plus, there really is zero way that they flip the results of this election. A recount wouldn't do it, so they'd have to somehow prove widespread Democrat voter fraud. Widespread Democrat voter fraud is something that the GOP is good at talking about but bad at proving.

The PA GOP has chosen a different and even more ridiculous hill to die on instead.
https://yahoo.com/news/pennsylva...203101879.html

This is the latest news on the attempt to impeach the Democratic PA Supreme Court judges. For those more knowledgeable about PA politics, does this have any chance of happening? As a related question, are the PA state house and senate seats as badly gerrymandered as the US congressional districts were? If so, is that gerrymandering being addressed?
#272
Old 03-25-2018, 10:24 PM
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And now that the elections are no longer rigged in his favor, Rep. Ryan Costello will no longer seek re-election.
Quote:
Rep. Ryan Costello (R-Pa.) won’t seek reelection this year, complicating the party’s chances of holding a seat in the Philadelphia suburbs after a court decision struck down a GOP-friendly map.
“It’s the most difficult decision I can recall having to make,” Costello told MSNBC’s Kasie Hunt on Sunday night. “I have an 8-month old. I have a 4-year old. And it’s a very challenging job, serving in Congress with a young family.
Republicans in Costello’s 6th Congressional District had been told this week that he’d abandon his campaign before the May 15 primary. The decision was first reported by City & State Pennsylvania, shocking Republicans who viewed the 41-year old as a rising star.
#273
Old 03-26-2018, 08:21 AM
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Originally Posted by FlikTheBlue View Post
As a related question, are the PA state house and senate seats as badly gerrymandered as the US congressional districts were? If so, is that gerrymandering being addressed?
The state legislative districts are pretty egregious (in my opinion). I don't know if there are any challenges to them now, but given the way they're drawn, impeaching judges is the only way for the Republicans to maintain their nearly guaranteed majority.

After the census, a five member commission is formed to draw a map. Two members are appointed by Republicans, two by Democrats, and unless they can agree on a fifth member (why would they?), the last is appointed by the State Supreme Court. As the court will likely be heavily Democratic for a long time, Republicans won't get anything as favourable as the current map for at least two or three decades.

Unless they impeach the judges. So while there's a short-term benefit if they can pull that off, I see the attempt to remove Democratic judges to be more about ensuring long-term dominance.
#274
Old 05-15-2018, 10:26 PM
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Two Democratic Socialist candidates have defeated mainline incumbent Democrats for PA Assembly seats. There were no Republicans on the ballot, so it looks like they're the shoo-ins. One of the mainstream Democrats,seeing the writing on the walls, tried to run a write-in candidacy for the Republican nomination, but apparently he didn't get enough votes to make the November ballot.
https://motherjones.com/politics...sty-1-results/
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